The Conservative Party has a problem with younger voters. At the last general election, the young decisively opted for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party over Theresa May’s Conservatives. In their post-election study, YouGov found that age was in fact the best socio-demographic predictor of voting intention: the younger you were, the more likely you were to vote Labour. It wasn’t until the age of 47 that voters became more likely to back the Conservatives over Labour, implying the problem is deeper than just students who might have been persuaded by Corbyn’s high-profile pledge to abolish tuition fees.
In the aftermath of the election, conservative opinion formers and politicians have spilled considerable quantities of ink proposing new ways of engaging with these younger voters that rejected the party in such large numbers. One of the most high-profile interventions was a speech to Bright Blue’s social reform conference by First Secretary of State, the Rt Hon Damian Green MP, who claimed housing, devolution to cities, and industrial strategy are key policy priorities for young people.
Ahead of the 2017 Conservative Party Conference, Bright Blue commissioned YouGov to conduct polling to provide evidence of what the political priorities are of younger voters under the age of 40, what they think of the Conservative Party’s policies, which policies would make them feel proud of voting for a political party, and how socially liberal they are.
This polling is intended to help inform the concrete change in policies and focus that could win over younger generations.
Methodology
YouGov conducted an online survey between 11th September 2017 and 13th September 2017 of 3,326 British adults. They used the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data to ensure the sample was fully representative of the British adult population according to age, gender, socio-economic grade, and government region. This included a sample of 1,092 British adults under the age of 40.
The survey included standard socio-demographic cross-breaks of age, gender, government region, socio-economic grade, vote in the 2016 EU referendum, and vote in the 2017 General Election. This enabled us to compare the views of the under 40s with the general population. It also enabled us to analyse the views of the under 40s according to different socio-demographic characteristics.
As additional cross-breaks, we used three indicators of social liberalism: support for same-sex marriage; opposition to a significant reduction in the levels of immigration; and opposition to the reintroduction of capital punishment for murder. We chose these specific indicators as they are often viewed as totemic liberal viewpoints. We wanted to gauge just how socially liberal younger voters were and to see whether social liberalism affected their view of particular policies.
We asked respondents to choose up to three policy issues which they think politicians do not discuss enough and want to see discussed more often. In the list, we included a mixture of commonly discussed policy issues and less frequently discussed ones. As Chart 1 shows, the top three policy issues that under 40s feel senior politicians do not discuss enough and want to see them discuss more are: health (28% put in their top three); climate change (26% put in their top three); and education (25% put in their top three). It is particularly striking to see climate change feature so highly, ahead even of housing which comes fourth. Climate change performs even better among 18- to 24-year-olds, for whom it is the top issue they want politicians to discuss more, with 30% putting it in their top three.
Chart 1. The top three policy issues voters feel senior politicians do not discuss enough and want to see them discuss more, according to age
Compared to the general population, under 40s are less likely to want to see senior politicians discuss policy issues like immigration (only 18% of the under 40s put it in their top three, compared to 29% of the general population), crime (16% of the under 40s, compared to 19% of the general population), Brexit (13% of the under 40s, compared to 16% of the general population), and welfare (11% of the under 40s, compared to 15% of the general population).
Interestingly, there is not huge appetite among under 40s to hear more of the policy issues that are commonly thought to appeal to younger voters, such as cannabis legalisation (which 12% pick among their top three), animal welfare (10%), internet privacy (10%), Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender (LGBT) rights (8%), and international development (3%). There is, however, significantly more interest in having more discussion of these issues by senior politicians among under 40s than the general population. In fact, some of these policy issues fare slightly better among the youngest demographic of 18- to 24-year-olds: internet privacy (13% of 18- to 24-year-olds put it in their top three), cannabis legalisation (14%), and LGBT rights (13%).
Perception of Conservative Party policies on key policy issues
We asked respondents to select up to three adjectives that best describes their perception of the Conservative Party’s policies on different policy issues that are important for or associated with younger voters. The available adjectives were: ‘inadequate’, ‘weak’, ‘damaging’, ‘safe’, ‘idealistic’, ‘pragmatic’, ‘risky’, ‘ambitious’, ‘beneficial’, ‘strong’, and ‘other’. There was also a ‘don’t know’ option.
We chose to test seven specific policy issues. Some of these policy issues are of great concern to younger voters, as Chart 1 showed, especially climate change and education. In some cases, these issues are typically associated with young people in political commentary, such as the private rented sectorand cannabis legalisation. In other cases, previous polling evidence suggests younger voters are more concerned about them, such as LGBT rights and animal welfare.
When testing the perception of the under 40s of Conservative Party policies in these key policy issues, the most popular answer in every instance is ‘don’t know’. This suggests there is low awareness of the Conservative Party’s policies among under 40s.
When under 40s do choose an adjective to describe Conservative Party policies on key policy issues, negative ones score highest, as shown in Table 1. The adjectives that received the highest scores are: 21% of under 40s think Conservative climate change policies are ‘weak’; 18% think their internet privacy policies are ‘damaging’; and 16% think their private rented sector policies are ‘inadequate’. In every policy area we tested, the top three adjectives that the under 40s selected are negative.
Table 1. The three most commonly chosen adjectives selected to describe how voters perceive Conservative Party policies in different areas, according to age and EU referendum vote
The polling revealed that this negative perception of Conservative Party policies is not restricted to the under 40s, but is also largely reflected among the general population, as Table 1 illustrates. The data shows that Remain-voting under 40s have an even more negative perception of Conservative Party policies than the general under 40s cohort, with the top-scoring negative adjective attracting a higher proportion of respondents in every policy area.
Even among their own voters who are aged under 40 from the 2017 general election, the Conservative Party’s policies are viewed unfavourably. This suggests that the negative perception of Conservative Party policies in these areas is not the result simply of a tribal dislike of the party. In five out of the seven policy areas we tested, a negative adjective is the most commonly chosen: for climate change, 13% of under 40 Conservative voters choose ‘weak’; for cannabis legalisation, 9% choose ‘weak’; for animal welfare, 14% choose ‘weak’; for internet privacy, 10% choose ‘inadequate’; and for the private rented sector, 11% choose ‘inadequate’. The two areas where the most popular adjective from Conservatives under 40 is positive are international development (10% pick ‘beneficial’) and LGBT rights (11% pick ‘safe’).
Pride in voting for parties that adopt specific policies
We tested whether under 40s would feel proud or embarrassed voting for a political party that adopted particular high-profile policies. We asked them about nine specific policies. In some cases, we polled policies because Bright Blue has advocated them, such as generating more electricity from renewables like wind and solar, raising the income threshold above which all graduates have to start repaying their tuition fee loans, and strengthening equalities legislation to ban discrimination against all transgender people. In other cases, we polled them because they are particularly associated with younger voters, as evidenced either by previous polling, such as legalising and regulating the sale of cannabis and spending 0.7% of national income on international development, or by being in the news, such as banning the sale of all ivory products in the UK and scrapping the rules that force internet companies to collect data on the customers.
For seven of the policies we tested, a majority of under 40s would be proud voting for a party that adopted them, as demonstrated in Chart 2. The most popular, which 83% of under 40s say they would be proud of voting for a party that adopted it, is generating more electricity from renewables like wind and solar. Second, 77% for banning the sale of all ivory products in the UK. Third, 71% for providing incentives for people to install insulation in their homes. Fourth, 67% for strengthening equalities legislation to ban discrimination against all transgender people. Fifth, 56% for requiring landlords to offer tenants longer contracts, for example three-year terms – the same proportion who would be proud of voting for a party that raised the income threshold above which all graduates have to start repaying their tuition fee loans. Finally, 54% for scrapping the rules that force internet companies to collect data on what their customers do online.
Chart 2. The proportion of people who would feel proud voting for a political party that adopted a particular policy, according to age and EU referendum vote
It is worth noting that the top three policies that we polled are all environmental, concerned either with climate change or the illegal wildlife trade. Chart 2 shows a majority of the general population would be proud of voting for a party that adopted these.
The two policies which only a minority of under 40s would be proud of voting for a party that adopted them were legalising and regulating the sale of cannabis (just 42% would be proud) and spending 0.7% of our national income on international aid (only 36% would be proud). It should be noted, however, that for both these policies, the most popular answer is ‘proud’ ahead of ‘embarrassed’.
But there is significant variation within the under 40s according to how they voted in the EU referendum. In each of the nine policies we tested, we found that Remain-voting under 40s are more likely to be proud of voting for a party that adopted them than the overall under 40s cohort (see Chart 2).
The Conservatives should be reassured that many of these policies are also popular with older voters, meaning there would be no trading off younger voters for older ones. Under 40s express roughly similar levels of pride or embarrassment as the general population in voting for a party that adopted each of the nine policies. Indeed, a majority of those aged 65 and over would be proud to vote for a party that adopted the following policies: generating more electricity from renewable sources like wind turbines and solar panels (79%); providing incentives for people to install insulation in their homes (82%); banning the sale of ivory products in the UK (83%); requiring landlords to offer tenants longer contracts, for example for three-year terms (63%); and raising the income threshold above which all graduates have to start repaying their tuition fee loans (53%).
Social liberalism
We wanted to explore just how socially liberal young people are. We asked respondents whether they supported or opposed three different policies: same-sex marriage; a significant reduction in the levels of immigration; and the reintroduction of capital punishment. We chose these as they are commonly viewed as being indicators of social liberalism.
A majority of under 40s are socially liberal on only one of our three indicators, with 78% either strongly supporting or tending to support (henceforth referred to as ‘overall supporting’) same-sex marriage, as shown in Chart 3. But for the other two indicators, the socially liberal view is actually in a minority. Only 33% of under 40s overall oppose a significant reduction in the levels of immigration, with 51% in fact in support. Similarly, only 47% of under 40s overall oppose the reintroduction of capital punishment for murder.
Chart 3. Support for different socially liberal views, according to age and EU referendum vote
The under 40s, however, are more socially liberal than the general population: overall support for same-sex marriage is 66% among the general population (compared to 78% among under 40s); overall opposition to a significant reduction in levels of immigration is 25% among the general population (compared to 33% among under 40s); and overall opposition to the reintroduction of capital punishment for murder is 42% among the general population (compared to 47% among the under 40s).
Within the under 40s, Remain voters and 18- to 24-year-olds are significantly more socially liberal on each of the three indicators than the overall under 40s cohort.
Overall support for same-sex marriage is 84% and 78% among Remain-voting under 40s and 18- to 24-year olds respectively. Overall opposition to a significant reduction in levels of immigration is 52% and 37% respectively. Overall opposition to the reintroduction of capital punishment for murder is 67% and 54% respectively. This is in line with previous research on this topic that shows a strong correlation between liberal social attitudes and support for Remain.
Conclusion
The Conservative Party clearly has a problem with how younger voters perceive their policies on several key policy issues. In fact, a large proportion of under 40s do not know what they think of Conservative Party policies on key policy issues, presumably because they are unaware of them. But those who do express an opinion are more likely to opt for negative rather than positive adjectives, including in many cases Conservative voters aged under 40. Negative perceptions are even more common among under 40s that voted Remain in the EU referendum.
Relatively few under 40s want politicians to talk even more about policy issues such as immigration, crime, Brexit, and welfare, but rather about policy issues such as climate change and housing.
Our polling revealed several policies that, if adopted by a political party, a majority of under 40s would be proud to vote for. They represent an important political opportunity for the Conservatives to improve their appeal to this crucial demographic. The most popular three we tested relate to the environment: generating more electricity from renewable sources like wind and solar; banning all trading of ivory in the UK; and providing incentives for people to install insulation in their homes.
Other policies we tested which a majority of under 40s support are: strengthening equalities legislation to ban discrimination against all transgender people; requiring landlords to offer tenants longer contracts, for example for three-year terms; raising the income threshold above which all graduates have to start repaying their tuition fee loans; and scrapping the rules that force internet companies to collect data on what their customers do online.
Most of these policies are also popular with the general population, including those aged 65 and over, and so present a minimal risk of alienating the party’s existing voters. They are particularly popular, however, with under 40s that voted Remain – the group that is likely feeling disengaged from the Conservatives as a result of Brexit.
The Conservative Party should seize the opportunity to rectify younger voters’ negative impression of its policies and to inspire them with some of the new, bold and popular policies that we have tested in our polling.
Sam Hall is a senior research fellow at Bright Blue
Notes
- The full data tables for the general population can be found here, and for the under 40s can be found here
- We gratefully acknowledge the support of the European Climate Foundation for this project
- We are grateful to YouGov for advising on and carrying out the survey, and for their comments on our analysis
